Who Will Win Bihar Election 2025? An In-Depth Political Analysis

Nitish Kumar and Narendra Modi during a campaign in Bihar.

Bihar is gearing up for assembly elections slated for the end of this year, and political activity is already in full swing. All major parties have kicked off their campaigns, and top leaders are making frequent visits to the state. The political battleground is heating up, with fierce exchanges and sharp rhetoric dominating the scene. As the poll date draws nearer, the intensity is only expected to rise. According to insider sources, the Election Commission may announce the Bihar Assembly Bihar Election 2025 schedule in the first week of September, similar to the previous cycle. Preparations are already underway. It is also being speculated that, like last time, voting may be conducted in three phases to cover all 243 assembly constituencies.

Nitish Kumar Faces His Toughest Test in Bihar Election 2025

can Nitish Kumar survives from His Toughest Test

For 20 years in Bihar Nitish Kumar ruled like a King. But in 2025, he has to face toughest battle amid poor health and a resurgent RJD.

With just six months remaining until the Bihar Assembly elections, the political atmosphere is heating up and the ruling National Democratic Alliance (NDA) appears to be losing its edge. Chief Minister Nitish Kumar, a key face of the alliance, is under growing pressure, both from within his party and the opposition. Concerns around his health have sparked debates about his leadership capacity, while the NDA’s once-solid social alliance seems to be cracking.

The Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD), the main opposition party, has been aggressively consolidating its traditional Muslim-Yadav voter base, posing a significant challenge to the NDA’s hold in the state.

Adding to the turmoil, Nitish Kumar’s party, the Janata Dal (United) or JD(U), recently supported the controversial waqf amendment law a move that backfired quickly. The decision led to a wave of resignations from within the party, particularly from Muslim leaders, signaling unrest among its minority base.

Among those who resigned were:

  • Mohammad Qasim Ansari
  • Mohammad Shahnawaz Malik (Minority Cell State Secretary)
  • Nadeem Akhtar (Vice President, Bettiah District)
  • Mohammad Tabrez Siddiqui (Minority Cell State General Secretary)
  • Mohammad Dilshan Rayeen (Party member from Bhojpur)

In response to the law, JD(U) MLC Ghulam Ghaus publicly criticized it as unconstitutional and appealed to President Droupadi Murmu to revoke the legislation altogether.

As these internal challenges stack up and public confidence wavers, a big question looms ahead of the elections: Will Nitish Kumar remain the face of the NDA, or is it time for a new leadership?

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Nitish Kumar’s Popularity Dips as Tejashwi Yadav Emerges as Bihar’s Top CM Choice

Tejashwi yadav during a camping in bihar.

A recent survey has revealed a significant shift in the political preferences of the people of Bihar. Only 18% of the respondents now want to see Nitish Kumar return as the Chief Minister, marking a noticeable dip in his popularity. In contrast, the survey highlights a strong wave of support for RJD leader Tejashwi Yadav, with 41% of those surveyed naming him as their preferred choice for the top job in the state.

The survey also showed that 15% of the people would like to see Jan Suraaj founder Prashant Kishor as the next Chief Minister. BJP’s Samrat Choudhary was backed by 8% of the respondents, while LJP (RV) leader Chirag Paswan received support from 4% of those surveyed.

Although the poll did not delve into the expected seat share for various political parties, the overall sentiment does not appear to be in Nitish Kumar’s favor at the moment. His declining approval ratings could be a cause for concern for the JD(U) as the state gears up for future elections.

Interestingly, these findings contrast with an earlier C-Voter survey conducted around the time of the Delhi Assembly election results. That poll had predicted a strong performance for the NDA in Bihar, projecting that the alliance could secure between 33 and 35 out of the state’s 40 Lok Sabha seats.

The difference between the two surveys underscores the evolving political landscape in Bihar. While the NDA’s organizational strength remains considerable, public sentiment especially at the state leadership level appears to be shifting. With elections on the horizon, the battle for Bihar is shaping up to be more competitive than ever.

The Major Parties and Alliances Are Promising Voters in Bihar Election 2025

JD(U) and NDA: Banking on Experience and Welfare

Under the leadership of Nitish Kumar, the Janata Dal (United) is placing a strong focus on social welfare initiatives and infrastructure development. Having been a prominent figure in Bihar’s political scene for decades, Nitish is expected to showcase his government’s performance in areas like healthcare, education, and rural upliftment. The campaign will likely center on themes of continuity, stability, and experience.

The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), a dominant force nationally, continues to support JD(U) but is also working to expand its individual footprint in the state. The BJP’s focus remains on development projects, national security, and consolidating support among upper-caste and urban voters.

The Lok Janshakti Party (Ram Vilas) and Jitan Ram Manjhi’s Hindustani Awam Morcha (HAM) also remain integral parts of the NDA coalition, adding to its caste and regional outreach.


Mahagathbandhan: A Youthful Push for Social Justice

On the opposition side, the Mahagathbandhan (Grand Alliance), led by Tejashwi Yadav of the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD), is shaping its campaign around social justice, youth employment, and farmer welfare. Tejashwi is increasingly popular among the younger demographic and is positioning himself as a dynamic alternative capable of driving change in Bihar’s economy and governance.

The Congress Party, although a long-standing ally of the RJD, continues to struggle with low performance in Bihar and is aiming to improve its strike rate by aligning more closely with regional issues and grassroots campaigns.

Also Read : http://bansuri-swaraj-political-rise-in-new-delhi/

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